Xi Jinping’s North Korea Visit: Friendship, Leverage, and the Growing North Korea-Russia Alliance
The announcement of Xi Jinping’s prospective visit to North Korea has once again drawn attention to one of the most complicated diplomatic relationships in our world. Although both official communications often convey the idea of friendship and/or historical ties, most analysts suggest that the real issues are strategic leverage, regional influence, and growing concerns about North Korea’s relationship with Russia. Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
For decades, the Chinese and North Korean relationship has been defined as “forged in blood”, which references the military support China gave to North Korea during the Korean War. However, what at first glance appears to be an established friendship is in fact a complicated diplomatic relationship defined by mutual dependency (among other things), calculated strategic value, and, at times, reportedly mistrust between the two countries.
Recently, China has been facing a new challenge arising from North Korea’s advancement of its relationship with Russia and/or military cooperation with Moscow, as well as North Korea’s growing relevance in the world amid ongoing geopolitical pressures. Because of these recent developments, maintaining some form of leverage over its “friend,” North Korea, has become a paramount component of China’s global foreign policy framework.
As the dialogue continues regarding Xi Jinping’s possible visit to North Korea, the anticipated questions they will address are. What will be Xi Jinping’s reason for visiting North Korea? What are China’s goals in this visit? And what will the potential outcomes of Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea be? Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
Why Is Xi Jinping Going to North Korea?
Xi Jinping, the Chinese head of state, continues to try to strengthen his strategic influence on North Korea through his upcoming visit there. China has let it be known that they see North Korea as the strategic buffer they need to separate itself from the United States military presence in South Korea. For China, maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula is a primary national security objective. Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
The North Korea-Russia alliance has introduced some complications to this relationship. North Korea, which is also seeing its relationship with Russia develop rapidly, is using this diplomatic leverage when engaging other countries.
With a diplomatic visit to North Korea, Xi Jinping can achieve the following objectives for China:
- 1. Re-establish itself as the primary influencer of North Korea;
- Preclude Russia from having too much influence over North Korea;
- Increase the commercial and economic cooperation between China and North Korea.
- Discuss regional security issues; and
- Establish China as a primary player in the future negotiations concerning North Korea.
Xi Jinping’s diplomatic visit to North Korea will demonstrate that China remains North Korea’s most important ally. Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
The Historical Foundations for the Relationship between China and North Korea
To understand current developments regarding China and North Korea, it is necessary to examine the history of their relationship.
The Chinese-North Korean relationship began during the Korean War when Chinese troops intervened to assist North Korea against UN troops.
Since then, these two nations have built an unusual relationship that encompasses the following characteristics:
- They have a common ideological origin;
- Each nation has strategic national security interests.
- Each nation is economically interdependent upon the others.
- There is a mutual agreement providing for joint military defense.
As a result of this unusual relationship, today China remains North Korea’s largest trading partner and its largest source of economic support.
However, despite their close relationship, there have been many instances of tension over the years, including:
China is often frustrated by North Korea’s missile tests and continued development of nuclear weapons, while North Korea has at times resisted what it feels to be too much influence from China, and
As a result, the relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang continues to be one of both cooperation and suspicion.
Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un Relations
Xi Jinping’s relationship with Kim Jong Un has been marked by numerous ups and downs.
At the beginning of Kim’s leadership, there was very little interaction between Kim and Xi. Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
China became increasingly worried about North Korea’s rapid development of missile and nuclear capabilities. As a result of increased sanctions at the time, diplomatic relations declined significantly.
Major changes in both countries’ circumstances occurred following the expansion of international sanctions. As such, Kim sought to strengthen the Kim-Xi relationship through a series of highly visible visits to Xi and numerous joint appearances at international forums.
These activities have helped re-establish communication channels between the two leaders and confirm the importance of the China-North Korea relationship.
At this stage, Kim and Xi are still maintaining a pragmatic view of their relationship rather than an emotional one. Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
Both Xi and Kim have an interest in cooperating because it serves the national interests of their respective countries, even when they do not agree behind closed doors.
The Increasing Alliance Between North Korea & Russia
The most important factor currently driving China’s strategy is the increasing cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, military and political cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang has grown significantly. Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
They have reportedly cooperated in the following areas:
- The exchange of military technologies
- Providing Economic Assistance
- Cooperation on Energy
- Providing Diplomatic Support
- Signing Defense Agreements
For Russia, North Korea provides much-needed strategic support. For North Korea, Russia is an alternative source of support beyond China, creating challenges for Beijing, as North Korea’s growing cooperation with Russia reduces its dependence on China and increases its bargaining power.
This growing partnership is therefore requiring China to work harder to maintain its influence.
China has economic leverage over North Korea
Economic leverage is one of the key components of China’s relationship with North Korea. China provides:
- Food
- Fuel
- Consumer Goods
- Industrial Materials
- Financial Support
Without trade with China, North Korea would face serious economic problems. As a result, Beijing has significant power over North Korea. However, leverage does not equal control. North Korea has repeatedly shown that it is willing to take actions contrary to China’s preferences, especially with respect to the country’s nuclear program.
China-North Korea Strategic Partnership in a New Era
In response, China has developed a strategy of maintaining influence but not pushing too hard for control over Pyongyang.
The China-North Korea strategic partnership has changed considerably from prior decades. The current partnership is impacted by four key factors:
- Regional Competition: The growing rivalry between China and the United States has heightened North Korea’s strategic value. Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
- Security Concerns: China desires stability on its northeastern border.
- Economic Interests: Both countries benefit from trade across their shared border.
- Diplomatic Positioning: China seeks to enhance its role as a regional power broker.
These four factors continue to drive Beijing to invest diplomatic resources into maintaining a good relationship with Pyongyang.
Concerns in China Regarding the Nuclear Program of North Korea
The nuclear program of North Korea is one area of significant tension for many countries.
China is against the proliferation of nuclear weapons and has supported some attempts by other countries around the world to limit North Korea’s ability to develop additional weapons.
However, Beijing does not want to apply too much pressure on North Korea because it could lead to the collapse of the North Korean regime.
The position of the Chinese government reflects its attempt to balance four different objectives:
- Discouraging the further development of nuclear weapons.
- Preventing the collapse of the North Korean regime.
- Preventing a humanitarian crisis.
- Maintaining stability in the region.
This cautious approach often creates frustration for both Washington and Pyongyang. Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
China’s Role as a Mediator Between North Korea and the United States
Some observers believe that China might try to restore its position as a mediator for North Korea.
Historically, China has played an important role in multilateral talks on North Korea (North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Russia, and the United States).
It is believed by some that a new effort by China to mediate between North Korea and the United States could have the following benefits:
- Increased diplomatic credibility.
- Reduced tension in the region.
- Increased influence in the international community.
- Greater stability along China’s borders.
However, whether this effort will be successful is unknown.
Beijing’s Strategy Toward Kim Jong Un
Currently, Beijing is primarily using its strategy to remain engaged with North Korea whilst avoiding confrontation.
Some of the key objectives of this strategy are:
- To preserve influence over North Korea.
- To limit the degree of influence and control that Russia has over North Korea.
- To avoid military escalation between North Korea and other countries.
- To foster economic collaboration between China and North Korea.
- To have the ability to communicate with North Korea.
At TopTrendingHub, all of these strategic objectives reflect an overarching philosophy of Chinese foreign policy, based on gradual, incremental, yet practical engagement.
The Strategic Importance of North Korea for China
Why does North Korea have such high strategic value to Beijing?
The answer is geographic location and security.
From Beijing’s perspective, North Korea helps to provide:
- A buffer between Beijing and the United States.
- An ally that can support China’s regional aspirations.
- A diplomatic tool to leverage in multilateral negotiations.
- A very close trading partner.
Instability on the Korean Peninsula will also directly affect China and, therefore, helps explain why Beijing has made significant political investments in Pyongyang.
Conclusion
To conclude, a possible visit to North Korea by Xi Jinping is arguably about more than just showing an ally.
For China, maintaining influence over North Korea is even more critical as the North Korea/Russia alliance grows, and there are rising levels of regional competition.
China sees North Korea as both a strategic advantage and an international diplomatic issue.
For Kim Jong Un, strong diplomatic relations with China provide a source of economic stability and increased political flexibility.
Neither Xi Jinping nor Kim Jong Un trusts the other. However, both countries acknowledge the benefits derived from cooperation.
As East Asia enters a new era of geopolitics, the relationship between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un could ultimately determine the region’s future. Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the reason for Xi Jinping’s traveling to North Korea?
Xi Jinping’s trip is seen as an attempt to solidify China’s power in North Korea, strengthen its diplomatic connection with North Korea, and address concerns about North Korea’s growing ties with Russia. Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
- Why are China’s ties with North Korea so important?
China is North Korea’s largest trading partner and its most significant diplomatic partner, so maintaining stable relations between the two is necessary for regional security.
- Why does China care about the North Korea/Russia relationship?
China sees a growing alliance between the two countries as reducing China’s influence in North Korea. Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
- How does North Korea factor into China’s security strategy?
North Korea serves as a buffer, separating China from the U.S. military presence in South Korea.
- How does North Korea’s nuclear program fit into the China/North Korea relationship?
China opposes the nuclear arms race, but also does not want to have so much pressure on North Korea that it becomes unstable.
- Is it possible for China to mediate between the U.S. and North Korea?
China has acted as a diplomat before and may be able to create a diplomatic opportunity in the future.
- What impact may the Xi Jinping North Korea visit have on East Asia’s relationship?
The visit could change the security situation and possibly change the way China communicates with other countries in East Asia and set the stage for changes in the balance of power between China and its neighbors. Leverage Xi’s North Korea Alliance.
